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How to Invest in an Overly Fearful or Greedy Market

March 29, 2023
minute read

A lot of things can go wrong when you're trying to make other financial plans while juggling many other priorities.

Something seems to be happening in the economy with alarming frequency on a regular basis and unexpectedly, causing chaos to spread throughout the financial markets on a worldwide basis.

It's possible that the reason for this is because quite a few people are overly sensitive to price swings or it has to do with the technical ability of the markets to react instantly. Irrespective of the reason, major volatility events seem to occur once every few years and they are often followed by periods of extreme volatility that last a considerable amount of time.

Among the latest examples of this are the recent difficulties faced by regional banks. However, sometimes, as a reaction to news releases, rumors, economic reports, and even the slightest change in analyst rankings, many stocks exhibit bursts of volatility.

Stocks plummeting in value tends to affect most people in a negative way. They are long-term investors and should not be caught off guard by short-term price swings because they own passive investments like exchange-traded funds. In spite of the fact that low-cost investment products are relatively inexpensive, they cannot assist owners in avoiding costly investment mistakes. That would make for a great topic for behaviorists to explore.

In the stock market, we seem to be seeing the emergence of a "fat and flat" pattern that is of more immediate concern to us because it serves as a warning sign. While securities ultimately stall, rising interest rates may have caused or fattened equity volatility, even though they have arguably exasperated or fattened equity volatility. There is a plan that can help to manage the chaos in these times, and we might call it the volatility metronome if you agree with that assessment.

There are many situations where proactive investors can monetize investor fear by selling bottom-up put options when the market or individual stocks are tumbling lower. Choose a strike price that represents the price at which you would like to buy a stock, index, or security at the time of the purchase. As an example, last week we suggested that you consider selling cash-secured puts on SPDR S&P Regional Banking KRE +0.51% ETF (ticker: KRE) to see if you can increase your returns.

Sell upside call options at strike prices that reflect your willingness to sell stocks, indices, or securities at a given price if stock prices surge.

It is acceptable to view unusually strong stock rallies as a sign of volatility in society. While stock price rises rarely cause complaints, they are sometimes the opposite of extreme fear, which may represent a good opportunity to sell calls.

Investing in the stock market based on recent direction paroxysms is a metronome strategy that every investor should consider.

In addition to being simple, the outcomes of the options strategies are also simple. There are two ways to buy stock: either at a lower price or at a higher price. There is also transparency regarding the risks. The put price is mandatory even if the stock price falls sharply after the put is sold. Adjusting the put might be expensive, but you can avoid assignments.

The call strike price is the price at which you must sell the stock when you sell a call. You won't be able to realize those gains if the stock surges much higher than the call strike. There is, of course, the option of changing the call to avoid assignment, but it might not be cost-effective.

Stocks should be considered first, followed by options in the strategy. Puts and calls that expire in one to three months should be focused on stocks you own or wish to buy. The professionals should be handling exotic options trades.

A passive investment requires active management over time. Monitor your investment portfolio and understand why you own certain securities. Nevertheless, if you think the stock market is fat and flat, you should consider this approach.

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Author
Bryan Curtis
Contributor
Eric Ng
Contributor
John Liu
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Editorial Board
Contributor
Bryan Curtis
Contributor
Adan Harris
Managing Editor
Cathy Hills
Associate Editor

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