JPMorgan Sees Record U.S. Buybacks Rise by an Additional $600 Billion

U.S. stock buybacks could surge by as much as $600 billion in the coming years, as companies continue reducing the supply of shares through repurchase programs, according to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

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A research team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou projects that the value of corporate buybacks will climb well beyond the $1.5 trillion record set in 2025. The expected increase is tied to a recovery in repurchase activity, which is on track to return to the pre-pandemic range of 3% to 4% of total equity market capitalization, compared with about 2.6% today.

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“The U.S. buyback engine, which has been a powerful driver of equity markets this year, is poised to gain even more strength in the years ahead,” the strategists explained in a note to clients on Thursday.

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The trend is not just limited to the U.S. On a global scale, the amount of buybacks completed in the first eight months of 2025 has already equaled the total for all of last year. When combined with a slowdown in initial public offerings, this has resulted in a fourth straight year of negative net equity supply, the JPMorgan team noted.

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“From a supply perspective, the market remains exceptionally well supported as the number of publicly traded shares continues to contract,” Panigirtzoglou and his colleagues wrote.

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Buybacks have also had a visible effect on stock performance. Companies with the highest buyback ratios relative to their market capitalization have outperformed the equal-weighted S&P 500 by nearly six percentage points so far this year, underscoring how significant repurchases have been in fueling returns.

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However, the outlook is not without challenges. Strategists at Goldman Sachs, including Ben Snider, pointed out earlier this week that buyback growth among S&P 500 companies has recently lost momentum. This slowdown comes after a record-setting first half of 2025, raising questions about whether the pace can be sustained.

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According to Goldman, several headwinds are likely to weigh on corporate appetite for repurchases. “Higher interest rates and rising capital expenditure demands will act as constraints on buyback activity unless stock valuations take an unexpected dip or AI-related spending cools considerably,” the strategists said.

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The interplay between these forces will be critical for investors to watch. On one hand, record-level buybacks have been shrinking share supply, creating a technical tailwind for equities.

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On the other, tightening financial conditions and an intense investment cycle particularly around artificial intelligence infrastructure could limit the cash companies have available for shareholder returns.

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For long-term investors, the dynamic presents both opportunities and risks. A continued rise in buybacks could provide steady support for stock prices by reducing available supply and boosting earnings per share. Yet if economic conditions force companies to divert resources toward debt servicing or capital investment, buyback volumes could plateau or even retreat.

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Ultimately, the trajectory of buybacks will depend on a combination of market valuations, interest rate trends, and corporate priorities in the age of AI and heightened competition for capital.

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For now, JPMorgan’s call highlights that, despite near-term uncertainties, the structural influence of buybacks on U.S. equities is unlikely to fade anytime soon.

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