The stock of Moderna jumped nearly 7% on Monday after TD Cowen upgraded it, predicting the company would "be a leader" in the RSV vaccine market.
Furthermore, TD Cowen said that Moderna may be able to become "less dependent" on new Covid-19 waves in the future due to its other vaccine candidates for diseases such as the flu. The price of the shares closed at $147.90 per share on Friday.
The Cowen analysts led by Tyler Van Buren stated that mRNA vaccines are likely to disrupt the traditional vaccine market due to their ability to target complex antigens quickly and efficiently and with rapid, cell-free manufacturing, which enables an approved product to be available within a short period of time. The stock has been upgraded from market performance to outperform by the analysts. “It is becoming less and less likely that Moderna's near-to-mid-term valuation will be driven by new COVID variant epidemic waves and more by PCV, RSV, and influenza epidemic waves rather than COVID variants.”
The update comes at a time when Moderna is navigating a boom driven by its mRNA Covid vaccine in the post-pandemic era. With the help of the company's messenger RNA technology, which teaches human cells how to produce a protein that is able to initiate an immune response against a specific disease, the company became a household name.
Cowen emphasized the company's potential RSV vaccine, saying that key opinion leaders believe that RSV will be a "three-player vaccine market" between Moderna and both drug makers Pfizer and GSK in the near future. In a race against each other, three companies are trying to get approval for the world's first vaccine against the respiratory syncytial virus, a virus that infects the lungs and respiratory tract and usually causes mild, cold-like symptoms.
Most people recover from RSV in a week or two, but infants and older adults can suffer serious complications.
During the clinical trials for Moderna’s RSV vaccine, it was noted that the vaccine performed well and was well tolerated by the patients as well.
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) awarded Breakthrough Therapy Designation for Moderna's vaccines against RSV for adults ages 60 and older in late January, marking them as a breakthrough therapy. A positive topline result from Moderna's phase 3 clinical trial on the vaccine led to the designation, which is intended to speed up the development and approval of drugs for serious or life-threatening conditions.
Moderna's vaccine was found to be 83.7% effective in preventing RSV with two or more symptoms in people 60 years old and older, and 82.4% effective in preventing lower respiratory tract disease with three or more symptoms in those 60 years old and older. There were no safety concerns identified during the course of the trial and the company stated that it intends to publish the full data set and share the results of the study at an upcoming medical conference.
Moderna's efficacy is similar to GSK's: An FDA review of the company's data found that it was 83% effective at preventing lower respiratory tract disease caused by RSV.
Moderna is still one step behind GSK and Pfizer. This month, an independent panel of advisors for the Food and Drug Administration recommended GSK's RSV vaccine for adults aged 60 and older, as well as a shot from Pfizer.
Moreover, Cowen remarked that Moderna believes that the regulatory support given to the RSVs proposed by its competitor should flow through to its own RSV candidates.
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