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10-year Treasury Yield Holds Steady Near 4.1%, With the Next Major Inflation Report Ahead

February 12, 2024
minute read

On Monday morning, Treasury yields exhibited minimal changes as traders turned their attention to the upcoming release of the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for later in the week.

The 2-year Treasury yield stood at 4.468%, reflecting a marginal decline of 1.8 basis points from its Friday level of 4.486%. Conversely, the 10-year Treasury yield, represented by BX:TMUBMUSD10Y, experienced a 2.9 basis point decrease, settling at 4.157% from its Friday position at 4.186%. The 30-year Treasury yield, tracked by BX:TMUBMUSD30Y, witnessed a modest reduction of 1.3 basis points, moving from 4.380% on Friday to 4.367%.

Market participants are eagerly anticipating the release of the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for Tuesday, as it is expected to reveal a drop in the annual headline rate of the CPI below 3%, marking the first instance in nearly three years.

Analysts are optimistic about Tuesday's CPI report, anticipating that it will provide further evidence of sustained progress in controlling inflation. However, there remains a subtle concern about escalating shipping costs and stagnant fuel prices, which are no longer on a declining trajectory.

In a noteworthy development, minor revisions to past CPI reports were unveiled on Friday, contributing to investors' positive outlook on the economy. The yields on 10- and 30-year Treasurys recorded significant gains of more than 15 basis points over the preceding week, marking the most substantial weekly advances since the period ending on January 19. Both two- and 10-year yields concluded Friday at their highest levels since December.

Addressing the forthcoming CPI report, economists Stephen Juneau and Michael Gapen at BofA Securities expressed their expectations in a note, stating, "The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report should show ongoing progress on inflation." They forecast a 0.2% month-over-month (unrounded 0.16%) increase in both headline and core CPI. Consequently, the year-over-year headline inflation is anticipated to decline by five-tenths to 2.9%, while the core CPI is expected to register a one-tenth decrease to 3.8%.

The subtle adjustments in Treasury yields on Monday indicate a cautious yet expectant market, with the impending CPI report serving as a focal point for gauging the trajectory of inflation and its potential impact on the broader economic landscape. As the week unfolds, market participants remain vigilant, balancing optimism about inflation control with lingering concerns about specific economic factors such as shipping costs and fuel prices.

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Bryan Curtis
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