A Pivotal Moment Draws Central Bankers to Jackson Hole

The financial world is turning its attention to Wyoming this week as the Kansas City Fed’s annual Economic Policy Symposium kicks off Thursday evening in Jackson Hole. The spotlight will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who’s set to speak Friday and unveil the central bank’s updated policy framework a roadmap for meeting its inflation and employment objectives.

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Investors will be listening closely for clues about the September policy meeting. So far this year, the Fed has held rates steady, waiting to assess the economic fallout from the Trump administration’s tariff strategy. With inflation still hovering above the 2% target and the labor market showing signs of strain, policymakers remain divided on when to restart rate cuts. Powell’s remarks could offer insight into just how much appetite there is for easing, especially as political pressure to lower rates intensifies.

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Recent economic reports likely did little to sway opinions. The core consumer price index which excludes food and energy rose in July at the fastest pace since early this year. However, prices on tariff-sensitive goods didn’t spike as much as anticipated.

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At the same time, a wholesale inflation report indicated rising cost pressures for businesses. Meanwhile, retail sales showed consumers remain resilient, with spending picking up over the past two months. Still, a drop in consumer sentiment suggests growing unease about inflation and job security.

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Jackson Hole is more than a Fed stage it’s a global forum. This year, the event offers an opportunity for policymakers from around the world to reaffirm their commitment to central bank independence, a hot topic amid ongoing criticism from President Trump.

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The symposium will feature fresh research from leading economists and a panel of heavyweight central bankers. Beyond the U.S., rate decisions and economic indicators across several regions will dominate investor attention this week:

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The U.S. economic calendar is lighter, with housing data taking center stage. Lower borrowing costs could help revive a real estate sector constrained by affordability challenges. On Tuesday, government data is expected to show a decline in housing starts, while Thursday’s report on existing home sales is likely to confirm activity near a 15-year low.

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In Canada, the focus will be on July inflation data one of two key readings before the Bank of Canada’s September meeting. Core measures and the breadth of price increases accelerated last month, but signs of cooling could strengthen the case for a rate cut. Retail sales data for July will also provide insight into consumer spending after June’s preliminary figures hinted at the strongest growth this year.

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand takes center stage on Wednesday, with economists expecting a quarter-point rate cut to 3% as policymakers aim to support a softening labor market. Bank Indonesia is likely to hold rates steady the same day, while China is expected to maintain its loan prime rates.

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The region will also see a wave of data reflecting the impact of U.S. tariffs on manufacturing. South Korea releases early trade stats for August, while Japan, Singapore, New Zealand, and Malaysia publish July figures. Thursday brings manufacturing PMI data from Japan, Australia, and India.

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In Thailand, Q2 GDP figures due Monday are expected to confirm a slight slowdown, validating the central bank’s recent rate cut. Japan’s national CPI report on Friday will likely show inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s target, reinforcing the path toward gradual hikes. Hong Kong and Malaysia will release inflation updates as well, while Australia posts consumer confidence data Tuesday.

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The UK’s July inflation report will be closely watched, with expectations for an uptick to 3.7% from 3.6%. Analysts see services inflation continuing to climb, reinforcing the Bank of England’s outlook for a 4% peak in September. Retail sales data follows later in the week.

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PMI readings across Europe will reveal whether businesses are adapting to the recent U.S.-EU tariff deal after confidence dipped in Germany. Swiss trade data on Thursday will shed light on U.S. tariff impacts, as Switzerland faced the highest levies among developed nations.

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In Geneva, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak Wednesday, while wage data on Friday will provide clues on inflation dynamics. Sweden’s Riksbank meets midweek and is expected to hold rates at 2%.

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Elsewhere, South Africa reports inflation Wednesday, with a rise to 3.5% anticipated. Israel, Rwanda, and Botswana will also make policy decisions during the week.

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Chile will start the week with Q2 GDP figures, a central bank survey, and current account data. Growth is likely to trail central bank forecasts, though expectations remain for a second-half rebound driven by easing inflation and improved financial conditions.

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Mexico wraps up the week with June economic activity and final Q2 GDP data, projected to align with preliminary estimates. Trade uncertainty and reduced public investment remain headwinds for the region’s second-largest economy.

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Meanwhile, mid-August inflation data could show a modest rebound after July’s weaker-than-expected readings.

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