Bitcoin is Expected to Break Out to New Records in the Second Half After a Consolidation Phase

Bitcoin is on track to break new all-time highs in the second half of 2025, fueled by growing demand from corporate treasuries and increased optimism that Congress will soon pass major crypto legislation, according to investors and analysts.

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Despite a nearly 30% gain in the second quarter, many still view the period as one of consolidation. That’s because returns tapered off each month, and bitcoin's price stayed largely within a tight range for much of the quarter. Overall, the cryptocurrency posted a 15% gain in the first half of the year, a noticeable slowdown from the 45% surge it recorded over the same period last year.

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Still, market participants are increasingly bullish about bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months. Their optimism stems from continued inflows into bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a wave of new corporate treasury investments.

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These factors have contributed to price stability, keeping bitcoin mostly above the $100,000 mark since early May. As of Sunday, bitcoin was trading around $108,000—just 3% shy of its record high of $111,999 reached in May, according to Coin Metrics.

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Devin Ryan, head of financial technology research at Citizens, highlighted the growing momentum around ETF adoption and corporate treasury strategies. “There’s still an acceleration coming here,” he said. “We’re still in the early stages. More money is on the way.” Ryan noted that as institutional and retail adoption continue, the barriers that previously limited bitcoin ownership are being removed, gradually but steadily. “We’re nearing the end of the consolidation phase, and the outlook is clearly upward from here.”

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A new class of companies, known as bitcoin treasury firms, is also helping drive this bullish momentum. These publicly traded firms are either holding or preparing to hold bitcoin as their core asset. Companies such as Nakamoto, Twenty One, and Strive Asset Management are actively merging with public entities to raise capital for bitcoin purchases through equity offerings.

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Steven Lubka, vice president of investor relations at Nakamoto, explained that many of these companies are still waiting for regulatory approval to complete their mergers. “There’s a lot of capital lined up to buy bitcoin that hasn’t hit the market yet,” he said. “We haven’t even seen the full effect of the money that’s already earmarked.”

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While corporate adoption is expected to be the main driver of bitcoin’s performance going forward, Lubka also pointed to favorable macroeconomic conditions. With the stock market reaching new highs and Washington preparing for a wave of fiscal spending, the broader environment is supportive of risk assets like bitcoin.

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“We’re at the intersection of several powerful forces,” Lubka said. “Bitcoin’s evolution into a mature asset class, fresh capital coming through financial vehicles like treasury companies, a surge in government spending, and a pro-bitcoin administration—these are all converging to trigger a major bull market.”

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Regulatory developments in Washington are another potential catalyst. Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said a political shake-up at the Federal Reserve could shift the market’s expectations around interest rates.

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If former President Donald Trump replaces Fed Chair Jerome Powell, it might accelerate expectations for rate cuts and increase confidence in the central bank’s independence, both of which could be bullish for bitcoin.

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In addition, Kendrick highlighted progress on the GENIUS Act, a proposed stablecoin bill currently advancing through Congress. If passed during the third quarter, it could prompt more retail investors to dip their toes into digital assets, with bitcoin likely being the primary beneficiary.

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However, there may be some volatility ahead. Kendrick warned that prices could become choppy around late September as traders begin to worry about bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle. Traditionally, bitcoin’s price tends to decline about 18 months after a halving event, which last occurred in April 2024. This could stir fears of a potential correction.

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Still, Kendrick remains confident in bitcoin’s long-term upward path. He predicts the price will reach $135,000 by the end of the third quarter and climb to $200,000 by year-end. Even if some long-term holders decide to sell, Kendrick believes the influx of capital from ETFs and treasury companies will more than offset any downward pressure.

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“Some market participants may worry about history repeating,” Kendrick wrote. “But the real question is whether the surge in institutional flows can neutralize any selling. We believe they can.” Once those concerns fade, he added, bitcoin should continue its ascent toward the year-end target.

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In summary, with institutional interest rising, favorable legislation on the horizon, and macro conditions aligning, investors are bracing for a breakout in bitcoin’s price in the second half of 2025.

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