Netflix Falls Short in Q3 Earnings. Analysts Weigh In on What’s Next

Netflix’s third-quarter earnings came in below expectations, leaving analysts divided on what’s next for the streaming giant. Shares of Netflix slipped 6% in premarket trading on Wednesday after the company reported earnings per share of $5.87, missing the $6.97 forecast by analysts surveyed by LSEG. The miss was primarily linked to an unexpected tax dispute in Brazil, which weighed on the bottom line.

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Despite the earnings shortfall, Netflix’s third-quarter revenue climbed 17% year over year to $11.51 billion, matching Wall Street’s estimates. Looking ahead, the company expects another 17% revenue increase in the fourth quarter, supported by new price adjustments, growing membership numbers, and momentum in its advertising business.

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For the full year, Netflix projects total revenue of about $45.1 billion a 16% jump from last year, aligning with prior expectations of 15%–16% annual growth.

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Following the report, analysts remained divided between neutral and bullish stances. Barclays, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs reaffirmed their neutral-equivalent ratings, while UBS, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America maintained buy recommendations.

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Barclays: Neutral, $1,100 Price Target

Barclays analyst Kannan Venkateshwar reiterated a neutral view, with a $1,100 price target that implies roughly 11% downside from Tuesday’s close.
“Netflix continues to execute well,” Venkateshwar noted, “but much of that strength is already reflected in expectations and valuation. The stock has also taken on a defensive profile due to limited exposure to tariffs and broader macro risks. Given this, we see few near-term catalysts, and any major M&A or spending spree on content or marketing could become a medium-term headwind.”

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JPMorgan: Neutral, Price Target Lowered to $1,275

JPMorgan trimmed its price objective to $1,275 from $1,300, signaling potential upside of around 3%. “Third-quarter results and fourth-quarter guidance were solid but lacked the upside seen in prior quarters,” the firm said. “The key concern now is the limited revenue growth in the back half of the year.

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Netflix also hinted that M&A could be on the table a shift for a company historically more focused on building than buying. As the media landscape evolves, selective acquisitions could help expand its content library and strengthen its strategic position.”

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Citi: Neutral, $1,280 Price Target

Citi maintained its neutral rating and $1,280 target, representing roughly 3% upside.
“The company increased its 2025 revenue outlook but slightly lowered margin guidance due to recognizing a disputed expense in Brazil,” analysts wrote. “Despite that, Netflix enjoyed a strong content lineup in Q3, expects solid engagement in Q4, and achieved its best quarter yet for ad sales. The Brazil charge explains the mild share weakness post-earnings.”

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Goldman Sachs: Neutral, $1,300 Price Target

Goldman’s Eric Sheridan kept his neutral stance with a $1,300 target, about 5% above Tuesday’s close.
“While Netflix provided limited 2026 guidance, key themes remain intact,” Sheridan said. “Revenue growth continues to be fueled by stronger engagement, expanding live event offerings, and a broader content slate. Cash content investments will remain robust, though likely below revenue growth levels. Meanwhile, Netflix is still early in scaling AI, advertising, and gaming initiatives.”

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Bank of America: Buy, $1,490 Price Target

Bank of America reiterated its buy rating and $1,490 price target roughly 20% above the prior close. “The lack of a 2026 outlook isn’t a concern,” the bank said. “Management tied it to the shift away from reporting subscriber numbers in 2025, not to any weakness in fundamentals. Advertising revenue is expected to more than double next year, engagement continues to rise, and pricing trends remain favorable following recent industry-wide increases.”

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UBS: Buy, Target Raised to $1,495

UBS boosted its price target to $1,495 from $1,450, implying over 20% upside.
“We view Netflix as a long-term winner,” analysts wrote. “Third-quarter performance supports our conviction. Strong growth in Q4 should provide momentum into next year, with 2026 estimates showing 14% revenue and 29% operating income growth. Management’s focus on organic investment and selective M&A possibly including Warner Bros. assets strengthens the company’s strategic flexibility.”

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Morgan Stanley: Overweight, $1,500 Price Target

Morgan Stanley maintained its overweight rating with a $1,500 target, signaling 21% potential upside. “Revenue growth of 17%, excluding currency effects, aligned with expectations, while margins were stronger than anticipated,” analyst Benjamin Swinburne said. “Advertising continues to gain traction and is expected to more than double year over year in 2025. Engagement trends are improving, and we remain bullish on Netflix’s growth trajectory through 2026 and beyond.”

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Overall, while Netflix’s earnings miss sparked short-term volatility, analysts generally agree that the company’s fundamentals from ad expansion to steady subscriber growth remain solid. The path forward may not be without challenges, but Wall Street still sees Netflix as one of the few media giants with sustainable long-term growth potential.

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