Rivian Can't Avoid 'EV Winter,' Warns Barclays Despite Stock Downgrade

Rivian Automotive Inc. is recognized for its cutting-edge technology, as described by Barclays analyst Dan Levy. However, in the face of a challenging market environment, this technological edge may not be sufficient to safeguard the company's standing.

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Levy, who initially believed that Rivian's standout products and technology conferred a triple threat of demand, representing each of its offerings—the EDV commercial van, the R1T pickup truck, and the R1S sport-utility vehicle—has revised his perspective. While he acknowledged demand challenges for the first two products in the preceding year, he initially anticipated that R1S demand would persist. However, recent data points, including sluggish sales of R1S inventory units and the unexpected launch of a Standard range version that may impact margins, suggest a noticeable softening in demand.

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According to Levy, the electric vehicle (EV) industry is undergoing a challenging phase, referred to as the "EV winter," and Rivian finds itself unable to escape the broader pressures despite catering to a more specialized market and possessing a fervent fan base.

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The repercussions of this subdued demand are perceived by Levy as "significant." Not only does it pose challenges to the overall volume outlook, but it also introduces potential pricing risks. These factors, in combination, lead Levy to believe that Rivian is likely to fall short of its 2024 target of achieving gross margin profitability.

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Additionally, Levy underscores the ongoing capital requirements, especially in preparation for the high-volume R2 launch in 2026, which he anticipates will exert further pressure on Rivian's financial standing.

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Consequently, Levy took the step of downgrading Rivian's stock from overweight to equal weight in a note to clients on Monday. Simultaneously, he revised the price target downward from $25 to $16. While he refrained from assigning an underweight rating, he justified this decision by citing an appreciation for Rivian's long-term narrative and its exposure to megatrends, factors that he believes will sustain a core base of demand for the company's stock.

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As a result of Levy's analysis and downgrade, Rivian's stock experienced a nearly 2% decline in Monday morning trading. This adjustment reflects the evolving challenges faced by Rivian in the competitive and dynamic landscape of the electric vehicle market.

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