The U.S Stock Market Holds Steady Before the Trump-Zelenskiy Meeting and Retail Earnings

U.S. equities traded mostly flat after the opening bell on Monday as investors awaited a high-profile White House meeting on the Ukraine conflict and prepared for a packed week featuring major retail earnings and the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium.

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The S&P 500 started the session oscillating between modest gains and losses. Among its constituents, Dayforce Inc. stood out as the best performer, surging 23% following reports that private equity firm Thoma Bravo is in discussions to acquire the HR software provider.

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Meanwhile, both the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw minimal movement. Market watchers remain focused on the Dow after it set an intraday record on Friday, though it ultimately fell short of a new all-time closing high.

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The muted start comes ahead of a key White House meeting later today involving U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and European leaders. Analysts suggest any developments from these talks could spark headlines capable of influencing market sentiment.

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“We’re not expecting the usual ‘dog days of summer’ between now and Labor Day,” remarked Matt Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. He pointed out that traders are keeping a close eye on both the White House discussions and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver remarks on Friday.

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The annual Jackson Hole gathering follows a week of mixed economic indicators, including a drop in consumer sentiment and a rise in producer prices. On Monday, the New York Fed reported a slowdown in business services activity, adding another layer of uncertainty.

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“Markets seem fully convinced the Fed will announce a rate cut at its September meeting, yet the data over the past two weeks hasn’t provided a definitive case for easing,” said Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay.

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Echoing that caution, Emily Roland and Matt Miskin, Co-Chief Investment Strategists at Manulife John Hancock Investments, wrote in a note:
“Bad news is only good news if central banks respond with more aggressive policy moves due to weaker economic conditions.”

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Despite macro headwinds, U.S. companies have largely outperformed expectations this earnings season. According to Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin, aggregate earnings per share have climbed 11% year-over-year, handily beating forecasts of just 4%.

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This week’s lineup of corporate results will provide fresh insight into the resilience of the American consumer. Major retailers Walmart, Target, The Home Depot, and Lowe’s are all scheduled to report quarterly earnings. In the tech sector, Palo Alto Networks will release its numbers after Monday’s closing bell.

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With geopolitical developments, Fed commentary, and a flood of earnings on the horizon, traders are bracing for a potentially volatile week. While recent data has introduced questions about the economy’s strength, strong corporate performance and cautious optimism around Fed policy continue to underpin investor sentiment.

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