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The U.S Treasury Yields Slip Even Further

November 17, 2023
minute read

On Friday, U.S. bond yields experienced a renewed decline, prompted by recent economic indicators pointing towards a decelerating economy. Investors are closely monitoring developments ahead of the upcoming auction of 20-year Treasuries scheduled for Monday.

Here's a breakdown of the key yield movements on Friday:

  • The yield on the 2-year Treasury (BX:TMUBMUSD02Y) reached 4.81%, marking a 3.1 basis points decrease.
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury (BX:TMUBMUSD10Y) stood at 4.4%, exhibiting a 4 basis points drop. Notably, the 10-year yield had been at 5% just a few weeks ago in mid-October.
  • The yield on the 30-year Treasury (BX:TMUBMUSD30Y) experienced a 4.57% rate, down by 4.5 basis points.

The driving factors behind these market movements include the release of weekly U.S. jobless benefit claims data, considered a key early warning signal for a potential recession. Thursday's data indicated an increase in claims, with continuing claims reaching the upper end of the range observed in 2018 and 2019. Strategists at BCA Research noted a seasonal pattern where the labor market tends to show improvement early in the year, followed by deterioration towards the year's end. They suggest the possibility that the data might convey a more positive message about labor market conditions in early 2024, hinting that an imminent recession may not be on the horizon.

However, amidst these insights, there are additional indicators pointing towards economic slowdown and deteriorating inflation and prices. Earlier in the week, both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data reflected this trend. Walmart's CEO also added to the concerns, suggesting the potential onset of outright deflation in the U.S.

October housing starts are highlighted on the U.S. economic calendar, offering further insights into the overall economic landscape. Additionally, several Federal Reserve policymakers are scheduled to speak, providing markets with potential cues regarding monetary policy and economic outlook.

Looking ahead, the U.S. is gearing up for a significant event in the financial landscape, with a scheduled auction of $16 billion worth of 20-year notes on Monday. This auction will be closely watched by investors, as it unfolds in the backdrop of the current economic uncertainties and the evolving trajectory of bond yields.

The outcome of this auction is anticipated to provide additional clarity on market sentiment and investor confidence, shaping the narrative for future economic expectations and policy considerations. As market participants navigate this dynamic landscape, the movements in bond yields remain a critical barometer of the prevailing economic conditions and the collective outlook of investors.

Adan Harris
Managing Editor
Eric Ng
John Liu
Editorial Board
Bryan Curtis
Adan Harris
Managing Editor
Cathy Hills
Associate Editor

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