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Treasury Yields Plunge After October's CPI Indicates Inflation Has Eased More Than Expected

November 14, 2023
minute read

On Tuesday, the yields on two- and 10-year Treasury bonds experienced significant declines, marking their most substantial one-day drops in over six months. The 2-year Treasury yield plummeted by 18.6 basis points, reaching 4.851% from Monday's 5.037%. Early indications from Dow Jones Market Data suggested that this could be the most substantial single-day decline since May 4.

Simultaneously, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 18.9 basis points, falling to 4.442% from the previous day's 4.631%, setting it on course for the most considerable one-day decline since March 17. The 30-year Treasury yield also saw a notable decline of 13.7 basis points, reaching 4.606% from Monday's 4.743%. Both the 10- and 30-year yields appeared to be heading towards their lowest closing levels since at least September 22.

The catalyst for these significant movements in the bond market was the release of October's U.S. consumer price inflation report, which fell below market expectations. According to the data, the monthly headline inflation rate from the consumer price index remained flat, while the annual headline rate decreased to 3.2% from September's 3.7%. Even the core measures of inflation, excluding volatile items like food and energy, were below the forecasts of economists and major financial institutions such as Barclays, BNP Paribas, and BofA Securities.

This inflation report sparked renewed optimism among traders regarding the Federal Reserve's ability to implement at least four rate cuts in the coming year. The data, signaling a moderation in inflation, suggested that the Fed might have the leeway to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy stance in the near future.

Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, commented on the inflation readings, noting that while they were lower than anticipated, certain problematic areas such as shelter, motor vehicle insurance, and personal care still persist.

Shelter alone accounted for 70% of the increase in core prices over the past year, offsetting the 5% decline in gasoline prices observed in October. McBride emphasized that the ongoing moderation in inflation would likely keep the Federal Reserve from taking immediate action. While a rate move in December seemed highly improbable, he suggested that persistently high core inflation might keep the Fed's options open into 2024.

The market's response to the inflation report underscored the significance of economic data in shaping expectations and influencing financial markets.

Traders and analysts are closely monitoring these indicators as they assess the trajectory of inflation and anticipate the Federal Reserve's policy decisions in the months and years ahead. The bond market, in particular, remains sensitive to economic data releases, with each report having the potential to impact yields and shape the broader market sentiment.

John Liu
Eric Ng
John Liu
Editorial Board
Bryan Curtis
Adan Harris
Managing Editor
Cathy Hills
Associate Editor

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