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Wall Street's New Biggest Bull Says Nvidia's Stock Has 50% More Upside

June 18, 2024
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Many analysts have yet to update their price targets for Nvidia Corp., despite the stock's significant rally over the past month. However, Rosenblatt Securities analyst Hans Mosesmann has made a bold adjustment. He raised his price target for Nvidia's stock (NVDA, 2.66%) from $140 to $200, suggesting more than a 50% increase from Monday’s closing price of $130.98. Nvidia shares showed modest gains in premarket trading on Tuesday.

With this increase, Mosesmann becomes the most bullish analyst on Nvidia tracked by FactSet, based on his price target.

"We see Nvidia’s Hopper, Blackwell, and Rubin series driving 'value' market share in one of Silicon Valley’s most successful silicon/platform product cycles," Mosesmann wrote in a note to clients.

Nvidia is renowned for its graphics processing units (GPUs) that are pivotal to the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. Mosesmann is optimistic about Nvidia’s potential to integrate software more deeply with its hardware offerings. While Nvidia's advancements in areas like switching are notable, Mosesmann believes "the real narrative lies in the software that complements all the hardware goodness."

He anticipates that the software component will significantly grow in Nvidia’s overall sales mix over the next decade, which will positively influence the company's valuation due to its sustainability.

Mosesmann projects that Nvidia will surpass $5 in earnings per share (EPS) by calendar year 2026, basing his new price target on a 40 times price-to-EPS multiple. The FactSet consensus forecast for Nvidia's adjusted EPS in 2026 is $4.16.

Nvidia shares have soared 42% over the past month and are up 164% year-to-date. The stock’s performance has been a significant driver of the S&P 500’s rise this year. Citi Research strategist Scott Chronert noted on Monday that the 14.6% year-to-date return of the S&P 500 can be divided into three components: Nvidia (4.1%), the rest of the “Magnificent Seven” (5.1%), and the “other 493” companies in the index (5.4%).

In terms of earnings growth, Nvidia is leading the pack. Chronert highlighted that Nvidia alone accounts for $4.20 of the $22.40 S&P 500 EPS growth.

In summary, Mosesmann's bold new price target reflects his confidence in Nvidia's continued leadership in the AI space, driven by both its advanced hardware and the increasing integration of software. This bullish outlook aligns with the stock’s impressive performance, which has significantly contributed to the S&P 500’s gains this year.

Bryan Curtis
Eric Ng
John Liu
Editorial Board
Bryan Curtis
Adan Harris
Managing Editor
Cathy Hills
Associate Editor

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